Teens are expected to drive about $67 billion in spending in the U.S. this year, and their still-forming tastes and preferences will set the stage for future shopping habits as their income grows. For that reason, Piper Sandler has been checking in with teens twice a year for more than two decades. The latest edition of this survey polled 5,690 teens between Feb. 13 and March 21. The wide-ranging survey saw teenagers reporting their spending this year will rise 2% from the spring of 2022 to $2,419. That figure was up 4% from the fall. Notably, it was spending among teen boys that is driving the increase. Gen Z girls are planning to pull back on clothing spending, which could spell trouble for apparel stocks in the months ahead. Among upper-income females, the wallet share for clothing fell 200 basis points since the fall, the firm said. ETSY 6M mountain Etsy shares are dow 12% year to date. “We have increased concerns that the apparel/accessory spend cycle observed since Fall 2021 may be ending,” wrote Piper Sandler analyst Edward Yruma in a research note earlier this week. The survey’s results boosted Yruma’s opinion of Etsy , which he upgraded to overweight from neutral on Tuesday. He also said brands such as Shein and AKA Brands’ Princess Polly are falling out of fashion with teen shoppers, and he’s feeling cautious about neutral-rated Revolve and Lulu’s . According to Yruma, “peak Shein” could be good news for other fashion brands since its low prices have put downward pressure across the category. “We believe that awareness of the environmental impact of SHEIN’s fast fashion may be having an impact on overall brand perspective,” Yruma added. Focus on social justice For several years, Piper Sandler’s surveys have captured Gen Z’s intense focus on social justice and environmental issues compared with other generations, and this latest edition was no exception. The environment remains the most important issue for teens, with 19% reporting it is an issue that is “important” to them. That was up from 15% of those surveyed in the fall, and the highest level of interest recorded by the firm’s polling. This spring, Piper Sandler also asked teens if they considered their “carbon footprint” when they decided what to buy. The vast majority — some 60% — said they did. That may account for the interest in secondhand apparel. It’s the top choice of places to shop for about 9% of the upper-income teens in the survey, Piper said. Last year, only 7% of teens picked that as their preferred place to shop. According to the survey, 49% of upper-income teens have purchased clothes on secondhand marketplaces like Poshmark, The RealReal and ThredUp , or at local thrift stores. Even more (55%) have sold clothing secondhand. But activity in this segment is stable to down for young women and growing among young men. Still, online shopping and specialty retailers are the top places where Gen Z shops. Analyst Abbie Zvejnieks said she was more confident about demand for companies like Deckers , which will benefit from the rising popularity of its Hoka brand and a big jump in popularity for Ugg. “This supports our thesis that HOKA continues to gain share in athletic footwear while UGG newness is supporting increased brand heat,” she said. “With UGG mindshare the highest we have seen since 2015, we are increasing our estimates for FY24 and increasing our PT to $535.” Zvejnieks’ price target implies 7% upside from Wednesday’s close. Trends also bode well for On Holding , Crox and Lululemon , she said. LULU 6M mountain Lululemon shares have gained nearly 14% year to date. “Athletic apparel continues to trend upward, with 45% of upper-income teens citing an athletic brand as their favorite apparel brand, led by Nike and lululemon, but we did start to see some moderation in athletic footwear mindshare. We think this can be attributed to strength within ‘casual footwear’ including brands such as UGG, Crocs, and Hey Dude,” she said. Nike remains entrenched as the top apparel brand among all teens, a position it’s held for more than 12 years. American Eagle snagged the number two spot from Lululemon. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
